Every day, Americans are faced with the stark reality that many challenges in the world do not respect national boundaries. From climate change and pandemics to racial injustice and more, now is the time for the country to come together and tackle these issues head on. However, it can be difficult to know where to begin and what steps should be taken.

To help sort things out, the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire will present “Report on Reports: A Roadmap for U.S. Global Leadership” at 6:00 p.m. on Wednesday, April 7. Offered in partnership with the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition (USGLC), the program will feature Liz Schrayer, President and CEO of USGLC . Schrayer will draw on data from the 2021 Quadrennial “Report on Reports” to guide a discussion on the future of U.S. Foreign Policy.

“In a town where it often feels like policymakers can’t agree on anything, we have found a lot of agreement when it comes to U.S. global leadership in USGLC’s new Report on Reports,” said Schrayer. “This year, we looked at more than 100 policy reports from across the political spectrum, and in the midst of a global pandemic where no one is safe until everyone is safe, there is a clear roadmap of a foreign policy that delivers for American families.”

This report focuses on six areas of global leadership where USGLC found strong bipartisan support. These include fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, addressing growing global economic competition, mitigating the effects of climate change, defending against rising authoritarianism, responding to humanitarian crises, and influencing global alliances and partnerships.  Drawing on these meticulously researched reports, Schrayer will distill the vital interests of the U.S. and suggest ways in which the country can rally around these issues.

This program is part of the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire’s online speakers program, which aims to help people better understand complex global issues facing the nation. These important events can help build consensus and inspire local action to tackle global challenges.

“Report on Reports: A Roadmap for U.S. Global Leadership” is funded with support from Steve and Karin Barndollar, Helen Taft and Peter Bowman, and Peter Berg and Janet Prince.  To register for this event and to learn more about WACNH programs, please visit: www.wacnh.org

In a world defined by conflict, the relationship between the United States and China is defined by a strategic competition for global leadership. While there are many areas of potential cooperation, both sides seem fixated on the issues that divide them. It is vitally important that Americans understand these complex problems to help the government chart a path forward the public can support.

On Wednesday, March 24^th at 6:00 p.m., the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire (WACNH) will present “The U.S., China, and Their Global Strategic Competition,” an evening with Bonnie Glaser of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. As a senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project, Ms. Glaser has the background and insights necessary to inform the audience about such potential flashpoint as Taiwan, the South China Sea, global leadership, and more. 

"Strategic competition with China is a defining feature of the 21st century," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki recently stated. “China is engaged in conduct that hurts American workers, blunts our technological edge, and threatens our alliances and our influence in international organizations.” 

America’s competition with China is an important and timely topic. For example, the trade war between the two countries has cost New Hampshire taxpayers more than $152 million in tariffs. It is also estimated to have cost the state 8,100 jobs in just over a year. The data shows, in stark terms, the hidden costs of this global competition.

This program is part of WACNH’s Global Tipping Points series, a three-part speakers program that will focus, this spring, on various parts of the U.S./China relationship.  The two other sessions will address Human Rights in China and how these two countries interact with each other, as well as the world, through international trade. More details to be announced soon.

“The U.S., China, and Their Global Strategic Competition” is funded with support from Steve and Karin Barndollar, Helen Taft and Peter Bowman, and Peter Berg and Janet Prince.  Register for this event HERE.

What we all witnessed at the US Capitol on January 6th was shocking and appalling. Never would I have imagined such a scene unfolding here in the United States, as this is something that I thought was reserved to less developed democracies and dictatorships. 

Working for an organization that is dedicated to building understanding and creating change through dialogue, I feel compelled to say what shouldn't need saying.  This assault on our democracy is wholly unacceptable and not in line with the democratic values of our country.  No matter where you want to place the blame for these actions, we as the United States of America need to all agree that there is no place for this violence in our country. Each and every person who illegally entered the capitol building should be arrested and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

In addition to being a national embarrassment, this further weakens the US', and democracy's, appeal abroad. Dictators around the world can use these images as propaganda to show their citizens what "democracy" looks like. They can say "you may not like the tight control I impose, but at least we do not allow violent mobs to storm our government buildings." 

Another issue that is not getting a lot of coverage is what has been going on while the US has been, rightfully so, distracted by the false accusations of election fraud. Iran has been building up their nuclear and missile arsenals, North Korea has been taking an increasingly aggressive stances, and China has been flexing its muscles all over the Pacific. All of these issues can impact our National Security, but have been relegated to back burner status as the US has needed to stay focused on the undermining of our democracy. 

Finally, I hope that having this incident occur on our home soil will help us all better understand when similar things happen abroad. Without a doubt, this drives home the point that democracy can be fragile, anywhere in the world, and we all must do what we can to support it, both at home and abroad. 

Former Secretary of Defense William Perry to Headline Fall Forum 2020

MANCHESTER/PORTSMOUTH – Little Rocket Man. Dotard. Fire and Fury. Nuclear Buttons. It was not that long ago that tensions between the United States and North Korea flared to the point where threats of nuclear strikes were made publicly. Fortunately, the rhetoric has cooled off for now, but this arguably was the closest the world had come to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis. On Tues., Nov. 10 at 6:00 pm, the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire will kick-off the first night of Fall Forum 2020 by hosting a virtual discussion on presidential power and nuclear weapons policy.

Former Secretary of Defense William Perry and Tom Collina, Ploughshare Fund’s policy director, will discuss the dangers of nuclear war and proliferation, the necessity for robust international legal frameworks governing nuclear weapons, and why the United States should reconsider vesting the sole power to launch a nuclear strike in the President alone. With so many hot-button issues around the world and a failing non-proliferation regime, this discussion will provide vital insights into why Americans need to be aware of the danger nuclear weapons pose.

“The outcome of the upcoming Presidential election will be crucial in deciding the future direction of U.S. global leadership,” said Tim Horgan, WACNH Executive Director. “The Council is committed to bringing insightful programs to help the public better understand issues such as the threat of nuclear war. Only one non-proliferation treaty still stands between the US and Russia and understanding the new Administration’s views on nuclear weapons will be important to understand.”

With the New START Treaty set to expire in February 2021, the next Administration will be quickly challenged on their nuclear vision for the future. A five-year extension would continue to build confidence in a non-proliferation regime and create the basis for future discussions between Russia and the US. In addition, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons will be coming into force on January 22, providing further restrictions on the production and use of nuclear weapons. A broad understanding of the challenges and advantages of non-proliferation will be important for Americans to grasp.

Fall Forum 2020 is a 2-part fundraising event by the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to exploring critical international issues and promoting greater understanding of the world. Fall Forum continues on Weds., Dec. 2 at 6:00 pm and will feature Former Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, who will speak on the future of America’s global leadership. Tickets are available for one or both events. For more information and ticket prices, please visit: https://wacnh.org/event-3959454

By Abrita Kuthumi

Photo credit: BBC News

The Saudi Arabian government has announced its safety protocols regarding the annual holy Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca amid the coronavirus. To prevent the spread of the virus that has accumulated to a total of 268,934 confirmed cases with the 2,760 deaths in Saudi Arabia so far according to the World Health Organization (WHO), the government’s most impactful instruction has been to curb international visitors. 

Therefore, for 2020, the Hajj Ministry of Saudi Arabia has limited the number of domestic pilgrims to be between 1,000 to 10,000. Of those, 70% will be foreign residents living in Saudi Arabia whereas the remaining 30% will be Saudi citizens. The foreign residents are required to be between the age of 20 and 50, in good health, and visiting Mecca for the first time. As for the Saudi citizen pilgrims, priorities will be given to essential workers such as healthcare workers and security personnel who have survived and recovered from coronavirus as “a token of appreciation for their role in providing care.” 

The Hajj Ministry has also made alterations during the prayer. Typically, prayers are held in tight spaces with people positioned shoulder-to-shoulder through the five days of rites. This year, pilgrims will be asked to practice social distance during the prayer. They will not be allowed to touch the Kaaba, Islam’s holiest site and metaphorical God to avoid transmission through high touch surfaces. The holy water will be bottled plastic water and pebbles used to throw will be sterilized beforehand. People will also be required to wear masks and bring their own rugs. 

The Health Ministry spokesman Mohammed Abdelali of Saudi Arabia explained this safety measures by stating, “protecting the pilgrims… and the sacred sites from the arrival of this disease is very important [...] Saudi Arabia feels a sense of responsibility, therefore we took these temporary decisions, which will constantly be reviewed.” 

Prior to the pandemic, the Hajj pilgrimage drew around 2.5 million people from all over the world. Pilgrims start making their way to Saudi Arabia starting Ramadan, the holy fasting month. However, this is no longer an option for Muslims living outside Saudi Arabia. The most impacted country is Indonesia which has the world’s largest Muslim population. Previously, around 150,000-200,000 Indonesian pilgrims would make this journey. 

These decisions have hurt the economy of Saudi Arabia, a country that was already struggling from decrease in oil demands due to national lockdowns. Saudi Arabia on a normal year rakes about $12 billion through the Hajj. With the sharp decrease in tourism, Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index has decreased by 1.1% as tourism-related firms such as business for Jabal Omar Development, Seera Group, and Al Hokair Group were dry this year.

By Abrita Kuthumi

[Aljazeera/How Hwee Young/EPA]

As China has quickly ascended as a global power that will come to influence the world during the 21st century, the country’s ongoing human rights violation records have come into question. The Chinese government, with the leadership of the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping, has taken draconian measures to control its people under the state. This has been demonstrated recently through the lockdowns and tracking devices during the Covid-19 pandemic. Although this method has been praised belatedly as it narrowed Covid-19 cases in the country, it has also been criticized for impeding on people’s rights. 

However, prior to the issue of Covid-19, the Uighur people living in China have been experiencing multiple violations against their human rights. The Uighurs are an ethnic minority Muslims that closely identify to the cultures and ethnicities in Central Asia. Around 11 million of them reside within the region of Xinjiang, the most northwest region in China. They are known for their agriculture and trade. Because the region is governed independently from China, they speak their own language known as Uighur, and they are ethnically and culturally different from the rest of China, the Uighurs people have sought to separate by declaring independence during the early 1900s. However, the communist state of China crushed the movement in 1949 and claimed its sovereignty over the territory. 

Although an autonomous region, the policies passed from Beijing have heavily impacted Uighurs in Xinjiang. In 2014, the Chinese government banned people from fasting during Ramadan and making visits to the mosques. In 2017, Xi Jinping was even recorded making comments that directly targeted Muslims: “religions in China must be Chinese in orientation”. Beyond Islamophobic remarks and actions, the state has further abused human rights through its re-education camps, forced labor, and limited child policies. 

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) published a report claiming more than 1 million Uighur Muslims were kept in re-education camps that forced them to give up their religious and ethnic identity and to pledge allegiance to the state. They were obliged to attend night schooling to study Mandarin, sing the Chinese national anthem, and follow other activities that the state demanded in the name of patriotism. 

The ASPI report also noted that Uighur Muslims were being forced to work in factories to make goods for well-known global companies from the United States, Japan, Korea, and more, such as Amazon, Mitsubishi, and Samsung. They were not only being economically exploited but also dehumanized in the process as another instance came up where the US Customs found 13 tons of hair from Uighur Muslims being shipped as products. 

For Uighur women, there is another story when it comes to human rights violations. The Uighur women can have two children- three if they reside in the countryside- according to the rules of the state. To police this act, the government has given authorities the power to raid homes in search for hidden children and give detention sentences if they are not adhered. To prevent the increase of Uighur population, the state regularly takes pregnancy checks, imposes intrauterine devices, sterilization, and even abortion. This has drastically waned the Uighur birth rates in Xinjiang, a place that once used to be known for its blooming population. 

With all these human rights violations, the United Nations Human Rights committee has likened these events to concentration camps. The international community has denounced China’s treatment of the Uighur people. The United Kingdom called it “gross and egregious” whereas the Human Rights Watch (HRW) commented that it was “shameful”. When China takes the seat of a global superpower that can interfere and shape the course of the world, what will the nation do when other countries point fingers toward it for its human rights abuses?

By Abrita Kuthumi

Image credit: Alexander Spatar, Teen Vogue

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people are one of the most discriminated groups around the world. Although the coronavirus does not discriminate against humans based on their sexual orientation and gender identity, the society we have constructed surely does. The LGBT community always had many struggles to face prior to the coronavirus but since then, factors such as lack of access to proper healthcare services, family stigmatization, and socioeconomic slowdown have been aggravating the situation. 

LGBT people, particularly individuals living with HIV/AIDS, face stigma, discrimination, and negligence in the healthcare system instead of being provided with more support for being more vulnerable to the coronavirus. During quarantine and lockdown, LGBT people, whose large percent of the people are employed in the informal job market, have been forced by their financial circumstances to return to their family. While there is a lot of romanticizing of family bonding during coronavirus, LGBT people do not have that same privilege because the lack of acceptance runs not only outside in the society but unfortunately within family households. Therefore, they are at a higher risk because of anti-LGBT family members who could physically or mentally abuse them during this stay-at-home era. Patterns of these issues have been encountered in many different countries across various continents. 

United States 

The Human Rights Campaign found that about among the estimated 16 million queer people living in the United States, approximately one-third of the people are working essential jobs. They work as healthcare workers, first responders, agriculture workers, and so on, being more susceptible to the virus. However, LGBT people do not always visit the doctors because of discrimination, mental health, and poverty. For LGBT people of color, that is especially the case as a study read that “40% of Black trans adults and 45% of Latinx trans adults live below the poverty line”. In the United States, often there is data regarding how people of color and low-income groups have been affected by the coronavirus. However, when it comes to LGBT people, there is no data being constantly collected. Dr. Magfa Houlberg, Chief Clinical Officer at LGBT clinic Howard Brown Health and Chair of the American Medical AssociationsAdvisory committee on LGBT explained the current dilemma that health departments have not tracked LGBT people because of the fear of discomfort, discrimination, and privacy reasons. 

Argentina

The World Bank reports that in Argentina, beyond 80 percent of trans women are engaged in sex work job market and due to lockdown, they have been unable to receive wages and have faced evictions. Beyond the economic detriments, trans people have also endured abuses from the police. There is institutionalized discrimination against especially trans people who, due to lack of proper documentation, are unable to access aid from the government. To combat these injustices, the government has set up the Ministry of Women, Genders and Diversity to collect data on women and LGBT people. 

Poland

Anti-LGBT has been on the rise during the spread of coronavirus in Eastern Europe and no country has made it clearer than Poland. The Polish President, Andrzej Duda, has expressed his homophobic opinions by stating he would invalidate same-sex marriage and adoption for gay couples as part of his “Family Card” proposal. He has also declared to ban education on LGBT subject matter in schools within Poland to “protect children from LGBT ideology”. Instead of being an ally to the LGBT communities during these times of hardship, his appalling remarks have spread in the country. Churches have blamed the LGBT community for coronavirus despite no evidence linked between gender and sexual orientation to the spread of virus. 

Indonesia

In the archipelago of Indonesia, many LGBT people hold jobs in the informal business. Thus, the coronavirus has made a huge impact among LGBT Indonesians who no longer have the daily or weekly wages through their work in the beauty, arts, sex work, and others. At least 640 trans women have experienced a loss in income which has impacted their ability to put food on table. The government has not been helpful, which does not come as a surprise given the anti-LGBT history of the country which proposed “family resilience” law that would provide rehabilitation to “people who engage in sadism, masochism, homosexual sex, or incest”. Instead of relying on others, the LGBT community in Indonesia has organized to help not only people who identify within their group but also others; in Yogyakarta, trans women have created food banks to support the low-income people in need and in Maumere, trans organizations have helped others with food, masks, and rent.

By Stuart Johnson

Mist rising from the Amazon rainforest at dawn. Image Credit: Rhett A. Butler for Mongabay.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, much attention has been drawn to plummeting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around the globe and the revival of urban natural habitats as a result of government-imposed lockdowns. Unfortunately, this trend has not applied to deforestation rates in the Amazon - which have increased during this same period. This recent alarming trend can be attributed to macroeconomic market forces - within the last three years the global demand for beef has gone up a staggering 23 percent while available farmland in the Global North (particularly in the Midwest) has decreased. But more importantly, it is linked to the increased economic desperation on behalf of out-of-luck loggers and farmers desperate for cash - an acre of deforested land in the Amazon is worth a lot more than a forested one.

Granted, and as a WACNH blog post pointed out last summer, the Amazonian fires last summer and today’s dire situation can also be attributed to politics - when right-wing nationalist Jair Bolsonaro was elected Brazil’s President in 2018 he slashed the budget for the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) by over 25% and reversed a downward trend in illegal deforestation since 2004. However, to blame politics alone is to pull attention away from the deep social learning that sustainable development solutions must continue to undergo in order to be put into practice successfully. Even neoliberal policies like the UN sponsored Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) program, which promised to have Global North countries compensate Global South countries for reducing their deforestation rates, have failed to be implemented effectively.

As such, it stands to reason that any multi-faceted approach to address deforestation today must meet meat and agricultural producers where they are - by developing methodologies that positively incentivize good behavior rather than merely punish bad actors in the big agribusiness and meatpacking industries. The COVID-19 crisis has laid out the case for this. Deforestation is a sustainable governance problem that requires effective strategies that can address socio-economic problems while also meeting ecosystem preservation goals.

The “Tipping Point”

In 2019, Brazil’s Amazon ecosystem saw its highest deforestation rates in over a decade. First-quarter losses in 2020 have been even steeper – up more than 50 percent compared to first-quarter 2019, according to Brazilian satellite data. As depicted by the graph above, the Amazon’s rate of deforestation is close to a “tipping point” - the five main drivers of deforestation: agricultural expansion, livestock ranching, logging, infrastructure expansion, and overpopulation are pushing towards a point where the forest itself will no longer serve as a carbon sink. A recent New York Times investigative study revealed that much of this devastation is being done by transnational criminal networks which work in remote places in the Amazon that are still technically protected lands but where enforcement is relaxed.

The Politics of Deforestation

In short, the perceived politics of deforestation are much more nuanced than they are made out to be. Logically, the poll above reveals the point that two things can simultaneously be true but contradictory at the same time: 75% of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed that “other countries’ interest in the Amazon is legitimate because it is important for the entire planet and is under threat,” yet 61% also strongly or somewhat agreed with the statement “Other countries’ interest in the Amazon is only an excuse to be able to exploit its resources.”

The larger point here is this: how do you separate the idea that emissions and GDP are linked? Today, G20 countries currently make up 78% of the world’s emissions. It’s a logical conclusion to think that they are tied together. Yet, they should not be. In order to move towards a more sustainable governance model, countries have to believe that in reducing their emissions they won’t be negatively impacting their economic output. As such, sustainable governance is about acknowledging that the livelihoods of the poorest affect those at the top just as much as those at the top affect those at the bottom. And yes, unwanted foreign influence is real, but widespread public support for more sustainable governance strategies clearly exists (as this poll shows) - it just takes the right messaging to capture it.

Incentivizing Forest Preservation - UN’s REDD+ Program & Carbon Offsetting

In September 2019, 230 institutional investors with more than $16 trillion in assets called on companies to implement anti-deforestation policies for all of their supply chains. This type of negative reinforcement demonizes bad actors but does not compensate those who are trying to do the right thing. According to estimates from the Woods Hole Research Institute (WHRC), reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon to zero within 10 years would cost $100 million to $600 million per year under a UN-sponsored program involving carbon credits for forest conservation (REDD+). In effect, this program (also known as the Amazon Fund) compensates indigenous and small landowners for the opportunity costs they would lose if they were to raze the forests on their lands rather than preserving them. Unfortunately to date, these programs have largely been unsuccessful due to lack of consistent strategies and the complex nature of the financial compensation system but are promising in principle.

The California Tropical Forest Standard is another step in the right direction, as pointed out in an op-ed by ecologist Dan Nepstad, President and Founder of Earth Innovation Institute who has worked in the Brazilian Amazon for more than 30 years. Essentially what this standard sets out is a principled way in which companies can buy verifiable carbon credits from Amazonian landowners - easing governors’ and community leaders' concerns that their efforts to cut back on illegal deforestation will cost them money while also allowing the private sector more direct access to this market. Moreover, this standard allows for indigenous people and local communities to retain their voice in the process.

By Megan Harris

As summer is in full swing and we enter July, we draw closer to the date that was supposed mark the opening ceremonies of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. While postponed to 2021, many questions remain unanswered about the Tokyo Olympics. We decided to take a closer look at the cancellation of the century-old games and explore both Tokyo and the athletes around the postponement.

Pre-Postponement

Back in February, when neighboring South Korea was going through a spike in COVID-19 cases, Japan continued to live as though the virus was not really a threat. A State of Emergency was declared, schools were shut down temporarily, and strict restrictions were set for those seeking COVID-19 testing as to prevent the spread in hospitals, but very few other measures were put in place. As the rest of the world was closing restaurants and moving to work at home, I watched as friends on social media in Japan continued to live their daily lives, going to restaurants and karaoke, celebrating graduations together in big groups while wearing traditional Hakama and getting their hair and makeup done. The government seemed to act as though the virus wasn’t a threat, being hesitant to ban travelers from China, and there were rumors spreading that many Japanese employers told employees who had tested positive to hide their diagnosis. People living in Japan began to question why the country so notorious for public health concern and cleanliness would be so slow to react to this pandemic whose epicenter was right next door. Many therefore came to the same conclusion—the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Many began to believe that the reason the country refused to shut down was to avoid the postponement of the long awaited and costly Tokyo 2020 games.

Call from the World and WHO to Pull the Plug

Despite pressure from athletes and governments around the world, International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach and the Japanese government continued to insist through the month of March that the games could safely go on. Both Canada and Australia announced they would not send athletes if the games were not postponed, and the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee received survey results indicating that 70% of Olympic hopefuls thought it would be unfair to continue with the games in July as planned.

Sources believed that the IOC and the Japanese government may have been playing a game of chicken so to speak, with each side refusing to make the final decision to postpone the games due to fear of economic and legal consequences. On Monday, March 23^rd, a special advisor to Prime Minister Abe’s cabinet announced to the BBC that the decision rests in the hands of the International Olympic Committee. However, later that week, after the World Health Organization consulted both parties and explained that the Olympics would be a great accelerator of the virus, the plug was pulled, and the 2020 Olympics were postponed. This is the second time a Japanese Olympics has been postponed, and first time ever that the Olympics have been postponed for reasons other than war efforts.

What Are Athletes Doing Now?

Of all those who have been effected by the cancellation of the world’s largest international sports competition, the athlete’s lives have especially been put on hold. After training their whole lives for this year’s competition, many are left worse off not only in mental condition, but worse physical condition as they struggle to find ways to train. In Uganda, Halima Nakaayi, the gold medalist in the 800 meters at the 2019 World Athletics Championships, has had to alter her training program significant; all the gyms and stadiums in Uganda have been closed since March, and her only option is to train on the roads of Kampala. She’s more worried, however, that with the cancellation of not only the Olympics, but competitions slated to take place before and after, that she may be out of her prime before her next chance to compete again.

The spokesperson of Uganda’s National Council of Sports expanded on this, saying that not only have athletes lost the momentum of the Olympic year, where their determination to do well at the games had put them in the best physical and mental shape of their lives, but they’ve also been put in a tight spot financially, as many of these other competitions are where athletes can make most of their money.

On the Olympics’ News website, veteran Olympians offer advice to those who were training for 2020. Chinese speed skater Hong Zhang tells other athletes to try to focus on short term goals, to think in terms of days rather than on months, seasons, or years. Canadian curler John Morris suggested switching up their sport for athletes who no longer have access to specific facilities needed for training. The Olympians also stress the importance of connection to others via the internet during these trying times in alleviating the feeling of training or being alone.

A Call for Permanent Cancellation by Tokyo Gubernatorial Candidates

During this time of heightened unknowns, there was a risk of further confusion thanks to the gubernatorial elections in Tokyo set to take place on July 5^th. The incumbent, Yuriko had been facing widespread popularity following the relatively low number of coronavirus cases reported in Tokyo despite the size of the city. While Koike maintains that Tokyo will have the virus under control enough by 2021 to continue with the Olympics as planned, the few candidates who opposed her ran on platforms that focused on the postponement or even cancellation of the Olympics.

The most prominent of the opposing candidates, Kenji Utsunomiya, backed by three of the major left opposition parties, suggested that the Olympics should be canceled altogether and that the money be redirected to social welfare measures and economic revival in the fallout of COVID-19. Candidate Taro Yamamoto, former actor and member of the newly formed anti-establishment ‘Reiwa Shinsengumi’ Party, said the cancellation of the Olympics would actually be his primary order of business, should he be elected as governor. Candidate Taisuke Ono, Former vice governor of Kumamoto Prefecture, was supported by the Japan Innovation Party, and believed the Olympics should be pushed back further to 2022 or 2024, not canceled overall.

However, the long ruling Liberal Democratic Party was backing Koike, and despite the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party backing Utsunomiya, there was a high chance that the major opposition parties votes would likely be split between the many opposition party candidates, leading to a win for Koike.

Indeed, last weekend on July 5^th, this is how the election unfolded, with Koike garnering 3,661,371 votes to Utsunomiya’s 844,151. With this win, Koike emphasized her plan to establish a CDC-like organization in Tokyo in order to support the simplified Olympics in 2021. The Tokyo 2020 Olympics posted a press release following the election, where the President of the Olympics Mori Yoshiro said he looked forward to the continued partnership with Koike, emphasizing the similarity in the way both he and Koike plan to approach the games.

Economic Impact and More Cancellations?

The delay of the Olympics alone is projected to cost Japan between $2 and $6 billion, most of which will be shouldered by Japanese taxpayers. Currently, Tokyo is trying to make a plan that will minimize costs as much as possible for the Olympics should they occur in 2021. For example, there’s been talk of combining the Paralympic and Olympic opening and closing ceremonies to cut down on costs, but Tokyo is hesitant to confirm anything yet.

Despite the high cost of the games, many have argued that cancellation will have negative repercussions on Tokyo. They’re afraid that without the revenue brought in by those coming to work and to watch the games, all the investments made into the Olympics thus far-- a sunk cost—have no hope of being offset without the financial benefit of Olympic tourism. Many believe this fear is what caused Tokyo and the committee to drag their heels on postponement of the Olympics in the first place. However, some experts are arguing that holding the Olympics after all will actually result in greater economic loss.

Economists Takuro Morinaga and Hiroko Ogiwara have claimed that in the world’s current vaccine-less state, holding the Olympics will actually hurt the economy rather than help it. In the absence of a vaccine, foreigners will be much less likely to travel to Tokyo for the games, and thus Olympic tourism will not provide the economic stimulation that was previously expected. Ogiwara says that the years-long development process for vaccines would make it impossible to be used on so many people in just a years’ time, and that even with a vaccine, the fallout from the pandemic will make people more hesitant to spend the money it would take to go to the Olympics. Morinaga stressed that the only way to minimize Japan’s net loss is to cancel the Olympics or to postpone until 2022, when there’s a higher chance of a vaccine being developed. However John Coates, IOC Head of Coordination Commission for Tokyo 2020, still maintains that the event is not dependent on a COVID-19 vaccine.

So, What Happens Next?

In late February, Shaun Bailey, the UK Conservative Party’s Mayoral candidate for the London 2021 election, had tweeted boldly that London could host the games instead of Tokyo. However, most of the infrastructure put in place for London 2012 games has been dismantled, and Governor Koike of Tokyo called Bailey’s comments out for being “inappropriate.” At the time, the WHO and International Olympic Committee had told Tokyo 2020 task force members that there was no need to cancel or postpone the Olympics. However, as the games were eventually postponed, it begs a few questions—  if, despite the governor’s wishes, the city were to drop the games, would another country be allowed take them? Would another country be willing to take them? If cancelled, will Tokyo pick up the 2024 Olympics, ruining Paris 2024’s clever bid logo as it’s shifted back to 2028? Is there a future in which the this century-old tradition can continue without development and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccine?

By Abrita Kuthumi

Image credit: The Jakarta Post/Dhoni Setiawan

The death of George Floyd brought momentum to the Black Lives Matter movement through protests in not only America but all around the world-- in France, Malta, Ghana, South Korea, China, and more. For some nations, such as Indonesia, the discussions on racism hit closer to home because the Indonesian society has been facing their own challenges on social discrimination with the dark-skinned, Melanesian origin indigenous group known as Papuans. As the Black Lives Matter movement spread globally, it influenced the rise in support for another movement in Indonesia that is being referred to as Papuan Lives Matter.

Between the two social movements, there are major differences given the history, geographic context, and experiences. In the United States, African Americans played an instrumental role towards the foundation of a nation which was built on slavery. Despite abolishing slavery during the 19th century, discrimination continued in every sector that oppressed Black people, including but not limited to unaffordable housing, higher rates of imprisonment, police brutality due to racial profiling, and more. The goal of the Black Lives Matter movement is to eliminate these generational injustices that have followed to the present. 

In the archipelago of Indonesia, Papuans were already inhabiting the islands of Papua and West Papua prior to Indonesian independence from Netherlands in 1949. The Dutch initially sought to have Papua become a separate country but the Indonesian government held a referendum with 1,000 Papuan people who decided to become one under the Act of Free Choice. This act has been called out for its irony given how its “free choice” title does not align with the process in which they were handpicked. Since then, Papuans have faced episodes of racial discrimination, such as the usage of racial slurs from the police which compare the people of Papua as “monkeys” against West Papuan students in 2019. The lack of economic resources in a land rich of natural resources is another major issue. While this does not apply to all, some of the Papuans seek independence from Indonesia. Although different narratives, the two movements share the act of speaking out against the social and economic disadvantages faced due to racial discrimination within each society. 

If Papua gains its independence, then Indonesia most likely loses its mining deposits. Therefore, the government of Indonesia has been active in quelling any protests that may concern the separatist movement. In 2019, 56 peaceful West Papuan activists who were protesting against racism in Jayapura, Papua were arrested and charged with treason under articles 106 and 110 of the Indonesia criminal code, which respectively states, “the attempt undertaken with intent to bring the territory of the state wholly or partially under foreign domination or to separate part thereof shall be punished by life imprisonment or a maximum imprisonment of twenty years” and “the conspiracy to one of the crimes described in Articles 104-108 shall be punished by a maximum imprisonment of six years.” Despite demands of releasing the Papuan activists and criticisms for restricting freedom of speech and assembly, the Balikpapan District Court in East Kalimantan proceeded with a sentence of 10-11 months in jail. 

This scene of oppression is nothing new yet the level of awareness within the local community that considers the issue of racism with Papuans to be low. However, given how people in Indonesia have supported the Black Lives Matter abroad but have been showing a lukewarm response to the racism within its own boundaries, Indonesian activists have called Indonesians out. 

“ [...] where was their [Indonesians netizens] compatriots’ outrage about Indonesia’s own racism-fueled conflict with black Melanesians in the contested territory of West Papua?”