Somehow the narrative in the Ukraine Russian war remains that Russia is winning and that Ukraine needs to give up the fight to bring about peace. That many people take this as a given surprises me, when you take a practical look at what Russia hoped to achieve through this large-scale invasion. At the outset of the war, Putin’s Russia told the world, among many other things, that this war was necessary to topple a regime that was hostile to Russia, an immediate threat to its security, and full of fascists and neo-Nazis. This “special military operation,” as it was sold/forced onto the Russian people, was to be quick and painless, reasserting Russia’s claim to its own sphere of influence. So, remind me how Russia has achieved any of these objectives?

Let’s start with the toppling of the Ukrainian government. While many predicted that Russia would overrun Ukrainian defenses in 48-120 hours, we have all seen how woefully inaccurate that idea was. While battle lines have consistently shifted, most analysts agree that Russia remains in control of about 18% of Ukraine’s land. Even in the four regions they have claimed to annex, they do not have full control. The only area of Ukraine’s territory that they remain in full possession of is Crimea, something they took well before this second invasion. So, on the idea that this government needed to be brought down and Ukraine should come under Russian control, it seems Russia has failed miserably.

Next, let’s take the claim that Ukraine is a puppet of the West and that NATO expansionism was one reason Russia had to initiate this war. Again, on this point Russia finds itself worse off than prior to their 2022 invasion. The NATO alliance has come together to provide billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, has opened a path to membership once the conflict ends, and has deepened ties with Ukrainian leadership. In addition, NATO has come out stronger with the addition of Sweden and Finland to the alliance, and the realization that defense production must increase to better prepare for future wars. All at a cost of zero NATO soldier deaths and the emptying of munitions that were due to expire and be destroyed anyway. So, on the idea of weakening NATO and pulling Ukraine closer to its orbit, we find Russia has failed again.

Russia also continues to claim that this war was about protecting Russian speaking people in these regions of Ukraine. Over 10,000 civilians have been killed in the fighting, and another 20,000 injured, most in the contested regions where fighting is most intense. These are the areas of the country where Russia claims to be “protecting” the civilians and “liberating” cities. Based on casualty numbers and the destruction of civilian infrastructure, I doubt that many of these people feel safer now than before the invasion.

Finally, this war was about showing Russia’s strength, highlighting their revamped military forces, and reminding neighboring states about the dangers of looking to the West. Russia wanted to prove that it had claim to its near abroad and that the declining West should stay out of it. On so many counts, this effort has failed. The myriad of logistical and strategic failures at the outset of the war and their inability to overtake a smaller and weaker neighbor, highlighted the issues with their military, not their might. The fact that the war remains in a stalemate, continues to highlight this point. In addition, opinion polls across the region show plummeting respect for Russia and a desire for countries to chart their own path. If that was not enough, Russia has only been able to get Syria and North Korea to recognize their claims of annexation, not exactly great company.

While the ongoing war remains horrific and deadly, with reports of stagnant battlelines, it remains difficult to see how anyone truly sees Russia as winning. All their stated objectives have failed and the massive humanitarian toll lies directly at the feet of Vladimir Putin. No matter how many times Russian government officials claim they are not at fault for this war, the facts are that one person decided to start this war and one person can decide to end it by removing all his troops from Ukraine. While this outcome remains remote without continued and sustained Western support for Ukraine, it remains the only way that this war could end in a day.

By: Tim Horgan, WACNH executive director

As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Summit ends, the western alliance remains in a precarious moment. Challenged on multiple fronts, most notably by the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine, the 32 member nations came together to chart a path forward for enhanced security and deterrence. Despite the challenges, this was also a time to celebrate the enduring success of this alliance over the past 75 years. On July 12, at 11:00 am Senator Jeanne Shaheen will join the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire to unpack one of the most consequential international gatherings of the year.

As the co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group, as well as a senior member of the Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees, Senator Shaheen has a wealth of knowledge and insights to draw on to assess where the alliance is headed. This fireside chat will focus on the summit's outcomes and their implications for the United States and its allies. Special emphasis will be placed on NATO’s continued support for Ukraine and why this alliance remains critical to U.S. national security interests.

“This unique opportunity provides the people of New Hampshire, and beyond, a powerful opportunity to hear from one of the most influential elected officials when it comes to National Security,” said Tim Horgan, WACNH Executive Director. “Senator Shaheen has taken on a major leadership role and it is an honor to work with her on telling the story of the NATO Summit.”

During this fireside chat with the Senator, audiences will gain deeper insights into the long term and ongoing success of the NATO alliance, what the challenges and opportunities are, as well as what key decisions were made at the summit. Continuing to confront Russian aggression in Europe provides many benefits to New Hampshire, a state that does over $3 billion worth of trade with countries on the continent, as well as supporting many of the defense contracting firms located here. Many experts also cite the potential for spillover into a NATO country, which would necessitate a response, up to and including military action. It is important for people to understand the inherent value of this alliance, to have clear eyes around the challenges, and to explore all the ways that this alliance structure affects lives both at home and abroad.

This event will take place at the Manchester Community College, 1066 Front St, Manchester on Friday, July 12. Doors will open at 10:30 am with the event starting at 11:00 am. This event is free and open to the public and media is invited to attend. More information and advanced registration at wacnh.org/event-5795175

Against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a highly polarized US election, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will celebrate its 75th anniversary during a summit in Washington, D.C. this week. The summit agenda will be dominated by three topics: NATO’s response to the war in Ukraine, bolstering allied defense and deterrence, as well as strengthening NATO partnerships, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. While highlighting a history of strength and cooperation of the alliance, NATO will need to present a plan that addresses these continued challenges to international security. 

NATO was originally founded with three broad aims of deterring Soviet expansionism, combatting nationalist militarism in Europe, and encouraging European political integration. The alliance has survived the fall of the Soviet Union and a growth in membership that points to success in ensuring the security of its allies. While these aims have been met, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to threaten security on the European continent. Russia’s invasion has brought NATO to the forefront for states as a key tool for defense. With Russia posing a greater threat to the region, NATO has welcomed Finland and Sweden as members in the past two years. A record number of NATO members are also meeting the 2% GDP spending target on defense. Both the increase in membership and spending point towards the continued challenge that Russia poses to the security of NATO members. At the same time, these increases reflect the continued need for NATO as a unifying alliance for members to effectively coordinate a defense strategy. 

The United States has long served as a leader within the NATO alliance, historically contributing the greatest amount of money to the alliance. The upcoming presidential election here at home will have considerable repercussions on the relationship of the United States and NATO. President Biden aims to use the upcoming conference to reaffirm US support for the alliance and express solidarity with Ukraine, while Former President Trump has taken a critical approach towards the alliance. Recently, the former President sparked concern among officials at home and abroad after declaring he might not defend NATO members who fail to meet the 2% defense spending target. His rhetoric follows that of his first term in office, where he aimed to lighten the uneven burden the United States carries in financing the alliance. As both candidates present their foreign policy goals to voters, NATO will be able to use the summit to make its own case for the support of the American public.  

A critical question that must be answered at the upcoming conference is NATO’s relationship with Ukraine amidst ongoing Russian invasion. While it has been indicated that Ukraine will not receive a formal invitation, President Zelensky has been invited as an observer. This invitation will allow leaders to express solidarity with Ukraine without facing the larger complications that Ukrainian membership poses. As Ukraine makes the case for accession, the Article 5 mutual defense clause poses one of the greatest barriers. Article 5 outlines that if an ally is attacked, all other members will come to their aid. With Article 5 in place, however, Ukrainian membership risks direct conflict between NATO and Russia. Rather than focusing on Ukrainian membership at the summit, allies can use the forum to identify ways to support Ukraine’s defense. 

In the United States, aid towards Ukraine and support for NATO are two primary foreign policy discussions that will be on the table during the conference this week. As NATO celebrates seventy five years of history of the transatlantic partnership, this conference will be an opportunity for the alliance to make the case for its continued relevance. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has renewed the need for a transatlantic alliance that is prepared to defend allies against Russian expansion and security threats yet to come. 

For more information on the upcoming conference in Washington and the role of NATO in the world, check out the recent podcast between Tim Horgan, the Executive Director of the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire and Daniel Kochis, a senior fellow in the Center on Europe and Eurasia at Hudson Institute: World Affairs Council of New Hampshire - Episode #67 - July 2024 

By: Lucas Gendron, WACNH Intern

Amidst the turmoil of the conflict between Israel and Palestine, four nations have significantly diverged from an ambiguous and lagging response from the European Union. Ireland, Spain, Slovenia, and Norway (a non-European Union country), have independently moved forward to formally recognize the Palestinian state. This decision comes at a time when civilian casualties continue to mount, showing the frustration of these four countries with Israel’s continued offensive. Joining seven other members of the EU and one hundred and forty-three countries around the world in recognition, there remains tough hurdles to ending this conflict. 

With what they believe is an insufficient response from the European Union, Ireland, Norway, Spain, and Slovenia maintain that recognizing Palestine will sustain calls for peace and promote Palestinian independence. Responses to the decision came quickly, with Israel condemning it in an official press release. Israel claimed that the decision rewarded Hamas for the October 7th terrorist attack. On the other hand, the Ambassador of Palestine in Ireland, Jilan Wahba Abdalmajid, issued a statement, declaring that “Ireland’s declaration of recognition of our right to statehood is an important statement to the international community.” Other EU member states, including Germany and France remained tactful on the matter, with Germany saying this required further dialogue and France stating that conditions had not yet been met. 

As air strikes in Central Gaza continue and civilian casualties rise in Israel’s offensive (totalling over 35,000 as of May 14 according to the Palestinian Health Authority), individual European states, such as Ireland, have become more vocal in their opposition towards Netanyahu’s strategy. This stands in contrast to the response seen from the European Union as a whole. As the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan think-tank on global peace, notes, recognition of Palestine has been a way for European countries to air their frustration towards Israel’s military approach, when the European Union continues to hold a more neutral stance. As of yet, the most significant step taken by the European Union was to call for an “immediate ceasefire.” 

Currently eleven of the twenty-seven nations in the EU recognize the state of Palestine. Seven did so before joining the EU, many of which are Central and Eastern European countries that did so in 1988 while members of the Soviet bloc. Despite the divide in Europe, the four states' choice to provide diplomatic recognition is sending a strong message to their neighbors, namely that peace for Palestine cannot wait. 

Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed that it would upgrade the representative office in the West Bank to an embassy and appoint an ambassador. Ireland continues to explore options such as cutting economic ties or investments with Israel, though no decisions have been made yet. Simon Harris, Ireland’s Taoiseach (Prime Minister), insisted that the EU should consider economic sanctions against Israel, with EU discussions ongoing about this matter. 

The timing of recognizing the State of Palestine is crucial. While Palestine is recognized by more than two-thirds of UN General Assembly members, there has not been unanimous approval from the Security Council’s Committee on Admission of New Members. Full membership to the UN would afford Palestine the ability to vote on draft resolutions and decisions in its main organs and bodies, many that presently pertain to the conflict. The decision by Ireland, Norway, Spain, and Slovenia to recognize Palestine will not change the path to UN membership. Still, choosing to recognize Palestine now does increase pressure on the European Union to recognize Palestine as a self-governing country. 

Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack has been alleged as war crimes by the UN Independent International Commission and the International Criminal Court, including for targeting civilians, sexual and gender-based violence, and other atrocities. The military response by Israel has also been alleged as war crimes by the UN Independent International Commission and the International Criminal Court for not properly distinguishing between combatants and civilians. Both Israel and Hamas dispute their respective charges. 

The case of recognition for a Palestinian state continues to challenge capitals across the world, however, the biggest hurdle remains the United Nations Security Council. While governments and regional blocs will continue to make their own decisions on how to approach the ongoing conflict, regardless of recognition, a lot of work remains to bring a lasting peace.

By Lucas Gendron, WACNH Intern

Over the past several weeks, months, and years, Haiti has experienced crisis after crisis, which has lead the country down a path of misery. Conflict came to a head in the past several weeks as the unelected Prime Minister's mandate expired with no movement towards sorely needed national elections (which have not taken place since 2016). Chaos reigns supreme in this island nation, with gangs ransacking government buildings, breaking prisoners out of jail, and preventing the return of Prime Minister Henry from a trip abroad to secure support for an international peace keeping force.

As the crises continued piling up, the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire reached out to Sophie Rutenbar of the Brookings Institution, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the NYU Center on International Cooperation to gain insights into the history of Haiti and how it got to be in such a mess. Of course, it is important to note that the long standing issues facing Haiti since European contact, have directly led to today's situation, so it is important that we understand the roots of this challenge. While there are no easy answers to this ongoing crisis, there is a strong need for the international community to do something. This is not a call to do nothing, but rather a call to do better than the past.

Listen wherever you get your podcasts or on our website HERE.

Last week, the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire had the honor of hosting judges and lawyers from ten different countries through the International Visitor Leadership Program. Coming from countries as diverse as Argentina and Sri Lanka, these visitors were selected by the U.S. Department of State to participate in this program focused on the how the U.S. judicial system works and how the country ensures respect for the rule of law. Across their five days in New Hampshire, the group had multiple opportunities to share best practices, learn about each others cultures, and build lasting relationships that can help shape the world. 

Throughout their professional program the group had the opportunity to meet with justices, lawyers, NGO leaders, and elected officials to take a deep dive into the functioning of State and Federal courts in NH. While all meetings were helpful in creating a broad understanding of the judiciary, the definite highlight was the opportunity for the group to speak with the five Supreme Court justices here in the state. 

"Having the chance to meet with all five justices in the NH Supreme Court is just something that does not happen anywhere else. It shows the value that WACNH brings to this program and that the people of NH do care about making the world a better place," said Anise Jasman Sayers, International Visitor Program Director.

Beyond the value of the wonderful meetings that these visitors attended, three New Hampshire families had the opportunity to host members of this group for an informal dinner in their homes. Karen Horsch, WACNH's newest host, had her first opportunity to host.

"Karen thinks that I have the greatest job in the world," commented Anise. "She loved meeting the visitors and having the opportunity to share a meal. It was the most unique experience she has ever had in New Hampshire."

While many of the visitors did not know where New Hampshire was on a map prior to their visit, they left with a strong sense of connection and thanks for the people of the state. As with all of these groups, this curated experience allowed WACNH to center itself at the forefront of global conversations and project the power of this work across borders.

By Tim Horgan, Executive Director of World Affairs Council of New Hampshire 

Editor’s Note: February 16 is Citizen Diplomacy Day, a day first recognized by Congress in 2011 to commemorate our organization’s 50th anniversary and our Network’s important role in building people-to-people connections through international exchange. In celebration of this day, we asked leaders from across the Global Ties Network to reflect on how citizen diplomacy humanizes the world, both locally and globally, and why this work matters.  

Tim Horgan (second from right) and IVLP participants gather together for a podcast recording. All photos provided by the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire.

The world, people tell us, is a scary place that may fall apart at any minute. With major wars ongoing, the lasting effects of a global pandemic, a growing great power rivalry, and other challenges, it is not difficult to see why many feel this way. As the world approaches the 24th annual Citizen Diplomacy Day on February 16, let us all commit ourselves to telling a better story about the world, a story we see every day: the power of citizen diplomacy to change the world. 

Throughout the Global Ties Network, new connections are made each day, and the world becomes a little bit smaller. In this ritual of sharing best practices, community, and personal experiences, both the host and the visitor have the opportunity to better understand each other and humanize global experiences. Rather than taking a bird’s eye look at the issues facing the world, these people dive deep into problems and solutions, crafting new ideas that they can implement across borders. While it remains difficult to draw a direct line between a meeting or an experience a visitor had and a positive change in their home country, one cannot deny the power of exchanges to shape the world.  

Simply by looking at the prestigious list of alumni of the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP), the number of people who have gone on to lead their country, community, sector, or organization remains the best indicator of the power this program retains. Beyond that, the true impact becomes clear through the changing perceptions and sharing of diverse ideas that occur on both sides of the conference or dinner table. Surely, anyone who has met with a decent number of international visitors can pinpoint the time someone came from a country which they held a negative opinion about; whether for the state of their economy, the perceived values their country holds, or any other reason. Once you sit down with this person and connect with them, these biases melt away and the common humanity remains.  

U.S. and international counterparts connect through home hospitality.

Over the past 15 years of working within this amazing network, I have a broad set of stories, both big and small, that can illuminate the a-ha moments that citizen diplomacy facilitates. Trying to pick one is always difficult, but I think the best is the visitor from India who visited a nonprofit coffee shop that works to fight human trafficking. She had wanted to start something similar back home and this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to learn and share. After the meeting concluded, the visitor and the executive director of the coffee shop teamed up to raise money that allowed two interns to spend five months in New Hampshire learning the ins– and– outs of running this uniquely formatted nonprofit. Without this direct experience, getting their own shop set up to help trafficked women in India would have been much more difficult.  

Looking back on the amazing experiences of meeting people from over 180 different countries, I cannot help but think about how far the new connections I curated for thousands of visitors have spread around the world. I have helped to plant the seeds of change in all these countries, but the hard work of cultivation is done by those who we have met through these programs. As we always tell our participants, this is the start of the conversation, and it is up to them to create the changes needed. 

So, as we approach Citizen Diplomacy Day, as well as the Global Ties U.S. National Meeting in March, I hope you will join me in telling positive stories about how citizen diplomacy opens eyes to positive global stories, creates connections that uniquely impact the world, and generally makes the world a better place. We could all use a little more optimism in our days and who better to provide it than our amazing global networks. 

An IVLP group is all smiles while relaxing and enjoying New Hampshire’s outdoors.

(This article first appeared in the Global Ties US Exchanges Connect Newsletter on February 15th)

The World Affairs Council of New Hampshire invites members, donors, and supporters to submit nominations for its Board of Directors. The Governance Committee will review all submitted nominations as the Council looks to expand the skills, experiences, and backgrounds of the board. Nominees who are already engaged in the work of WACNH, particularly those who are members, will receive priority consideration, as passion for WACNH's mission, vision, and values is needed. 

WACNH welcomes all nominees, including those without prior board experience, in order to identify those who can best serve the needs of the Board of Directors and the organization as a whole. Specific skill areas of need include development, communications, finance, and education. 

Nominees should commit to six board meetings a year, service on at least one committee, and bring a positive outlook on the work of the Council. Board Members can expect to spend two to five hours each month in support of their board duties. Terms are typically three years in length.

To submit your nomination, please follow CLICK HERE to fill out the brief nomination form.

Democratic presidential candidate Jason Palmer is slated to present his foreign policy vision at the "Foreign Policy on the Ballot" forum hosted by the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire on January 9, 2024, at 6:00 pm in Manchester. Palmer will share his comprehensive, people-first approach to America's role in global affairs at this event with prospective Democratic and Independent voters for the upcoming 2024 New Hampshire Democratic Primary. In advance of this event, we wanted to share a bit of background about Mr. Palmer's views on the world and sent him a three-part questionnaire. His responses are below.

America’s Role in the World 

Palmer's foreign policy vision places America at the forefront of global leadership in terms of military and diplomatic strength and as a beacon of democracy, innovation, education, and human rights. He envisions the United States transcending its traditional role as a military superpower to become a pioneering force in shaping the future of technology and democratic principles. According to Palmer, America's global role is to set the benchmark for democratic values and technological advancements that are people-first, leading the way in developing and implementing cutting-edge innovations while upholding and advocating for freedom, democracy, human rights, self-determination, and peace. 

Palmer believes that this broader, more holistic approach to American leadership focused on developing people and promoting democracy, human rights, and education will redefine the country's influence on the world stage. By embracing this role, the United States can inspire and facilitate positive change globally, driving advancements in various sectors while steadfastly promoting and protecting core principles. 

The Greatest Global Threat Facing America 

Palmer recognizes the critical importance of digital transformation (AI, cybersecurity, Web3, drone technology, etc.) as the most pressing challenge confronting America in the contemporary national security landscape. He understands that maintaining a competitive edge in these rapidly evolving domains is essential for national security and economic vitality. Palmer is acutely aware that AI, drone, and cybersecurity threats are not just about protecting data but also about safeguarding the very foundations of democracy and the American way of life. In the face of these threats, he is committed to championing advanced security measures that are robust, responsive, and capable of adapting to the ever-changing nature of digital risks. 

Additionally, Palmer sees the race in AI technology as a pivotal arena where the United States must assert its leadership. He believes that excelling in AI is a matter of technological superiority and a strategic imperative for economic competitiveness and national defense. Palmer's approach involves fostering innovation in AI while ensuring ethical standards and practices are in place, recognizing that the responsible development and deployment of AI are crucial for gaining public trust and ensuring these technologies benefit society. 

The First 100 Days of a Palmer Administration 

In his first 100 days as president, Jason Palmer plans to establish a Department of Innovation and Technology, focusing on America's technological and cybersecurity leadership. This department is critical for safeguarding national security and will advance AI and other technologies to protect America's digital infrastructure against cyber threats. Additionally, Palmer's administration will strengthen investment in advanced military technologies and international alliances and defense strategies, particularly in cyber, AI, and other digital disruptions. 

Palmer also aims to re-establish America as the world’s leader on climate, integrating green leadership policies into national security, and prioritizing re-engagement in climate technology innovation, global climate agreements, and clean energy initiatives. Economic policies under his administration will focus on increasing growth through investments in climate technologies that increase our security, emphasizing the onshore development of vital industries like semiconductors and lithium-ion batteries, essential for both technology and defense. 

Palmer's policy initiatives reflect a blend of technological savvy and diplomatic foresight, appealing to voters looking for a candidate who can adeptly navigate the intricacies of modern global politics with a forward-looking perspective.

Join WACNH in-person or online for our conversation with Mr. Palmer on January 9th at 6:00 pm in Manchester, NH. You can find more information and registration at the following link: https://wacnh.org/event-5542481

We are finishing with our visit of Manchester, New Hampshire, where the motto is "Live free or die". Since 1889, New Hampshire has paid its 400 State Representatives and 24 State Senators an annual pay of $100 per year! It is the lowest state legislature pay in the U.S., while the second-lowest annual pay is in Texas at $7,200 per year. New Hampshire's state legislature is also the largest in the U.S., while the second-largest state legislature is Pennsylvania’s, with 253 seats. It is all about helping and contributing to the community out here! It really makes you think about the system of governance, where everything is done by the people for the people.

We finally had a chance to experience the long awaited "Home Hospitality dinner" and I am forever grateful to Dr. Andrew Smith, Director of UNH Survey Center and his family for hosting us at their pleasant home and showing us, what New Hampshire is really about. In addition to excellent cuisine, we also had an opportunity for some deep political and philosophical conversations. A truly one of a kind experience.

Our program, that was organized by our local host World Affairs Council of New Hampshire, continued with a visit to New Hampshire Cyber Integration Center at the Department of Information Technology, where we learned about the profound significance of NHCIC in enhancing the cybersecurity posture of the state, its essential role in monitoring cybersecurity threats, promoting real-time information sharing, facilitating threat analysis and how the NHCIC fosters collaborative efforts between executive branch agencies and departments with the goal of bolstering the state's ability to respond effectively to cyberattacks. The Commissioner's team has incredible expertise from previous employments in U.S. Army and U.S. intelligence community which they enthusiastically shared with us!

We also visited Manchester Community College, where we discussed their use of technology in the classrooms and NH Cybersecurity Symposium. It was an excellent opportunity to get an in depth view of how the educational system works at this college and its benefits. We also had a demonstration of the metaverse and could see from first hand experience the changes that it will bring to education system. What a time to be alive!

Our program in NH concluded with a State House Tour, where we learned about the history and politics of the state. NH State House is one of the oldest state capitol buildings in the U.S. in which both houses of the legislature meet in their original chambers and it still currently houses the Governor and Executive Council!

Our visit to NH was short, but sweet and NH is definetly one of the places that I would move to, if I was considering living in the U.S.!

We will soon travel to Boston, Massachusetts, which is our final destination in this amazing IVLP program, that I am very honored to be part of.