Somehow the narrative in the Ukraine Russian war remains that Russia is winning and that Ukraine needs to give up the fight to bring about peace. That many people take this as a given surprises me, when you take a practical look at what Russia hoped to achieve through this large-scale invasion. At the outset of the war, Putin’s Russia told the world, among many other things, that this war was necessary to topple a regime that was hostile to Russia, an immediate threat to its security, and full of fascists and neo-Nazis. This “special military operation,” as it was sold/forced onto the Russian people, was to be quick and painless, reasserting Russia’s claim to its own sphere of influence. So, remind me how Russia has achieved any of these objectives?
Let’s start with the toppling of the Ukrainian government. While many predicted that Russia would overrun Ukrainian defenses in 48-120 hours, we have all seen how woefully inaccurate that idea was. While battle lines have consistently shifted, most analysts agree that Russia remains in control of about 18% of Ukraine’s land. Even in the four regions they have claimed to annex, they do not have full control. The only area of Ukraine’s territory that they remain in full possession of is Crimea, something they took well before this second invasion. So, on the idea that this government needed to be brought down and Ukraine should come under Russian control, it seems Russia has failed miserably.
Next, let’s take the claim that Ukraine is a puppet of the West and that NATO expansionism was one reason Russia had to initiate this war. Again, on this point Russia finds itself worse off than prior to their 2022 invasion. The NATO alliance has come together to provide billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, has opened a path to membership once the conflict ends, and has deepened ties with Ukrainian leadership. In addition, NATO has come out stronger with the addition of Sweden and Finland to the alliance, and the realization that defense production must increase to better prepare for future wars. All at a cost of zero NATO soldier deaths and the emptying of munitions that were due to expire and be destroyed anyway. So, on the idea of weakening NATO and pulling Ukraine closer to its orbit, we find Russia has failed again.
Russia also continues to claim that this war was about protecting Russian speaking people in these regions of Ukraine. Over 10,000 civilians have been killed in the fighting, and another 20,000 injured, most in the contested regions where fighting is most intense. These are the areas of the country where Russia claims to be “protecting” the civilians and “liberating” cities. Based on casualty numbers and the destruction of civilian infrastructure, I doubt that many of these people feel safer now than before the invasion.
Finally, this war was about showing Russia’s strength, highlighting their revamped military forces, and reminding neighboring states about the dangers of looking to the West. Russia wanted to prove that it had claim to its near abroad and that the declining West should stay out of it. On so many counts, this effort has failed. The myriad of logistical and strategic failures at the outset of the war and their inability to overtake a smaller and weaker neighbor, highlighted the issues with their military, not their might. The fact that the war remains in a stalemate, continues to highlight this point. In addition, opinion polls across the region show plummeting respect for Russia and a desire for countries to chart their own path. If that was not enough, Russia has only been able to get Syria and North Korea to recognize their claims of annexation, not exactly great company.
While the ongoing war remains horrific and deadly, with reports of stagnant battlelines, it remains difficult to see how anyone truly sees Russia as winning. All their stated objectives have failed and the massive humanitarian toll lies directly at the feet of Vladimir Putin. No matter how many times Russian government officials claim they are not at fault for this war, the facts are that one person decided to start this war and one person can decide to end it by removing all his troops from Ukraine. While this outcome remains remote without continued and sustained Western support for Ukraine, it remains the only way that this war could end in a day.
By: Tim Horgan, WACNH executive director
